HIV-1 CRF07_BC transmission dynamics in China: two decades of national molecular surveillance
Zhangwen Ge, Yi Feng, Hua Zhang, Abdur Rashid, Silvère D. Zaongo, Kang Li, Yueyang Yu, Bowen Lv, Jia Sun, Yanling Liang, Hui Xing, Anders Sönnerborg, Ping Ma, Yiming Shao
Abstract
By analyzing an unprecedentedly large, longitudinal HIV-1 CRF07_BC sequence dataset collected from China in the past two decades, we sought to build CRF07_BC lengthwise transmission networks, and understand its transmission dynamics. We divided CRF07_BC into two clusters based on phylogenetic analysis and an estimation of the pairwise genetic distance at 0.7%. Of 6213 sequences, 3607 (58.1%) linked to ≥1 other sequence. CRF07_BC was divided into two clusters: 07BC_O and 07BC_N. The 07BC_O is the original CRF07_BC, circulating in people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexuals, predominantly in southwestern and northwestern provinces of China. The 07BC_N is a new cluster, identified mostly in men having sex with men (MSM) in the northern provinces of China. Bayesian analysis indicates that CRF07_BC has experienced two phases of exponential growth, which was first driven by 07BC_O then 07BC_N. Compared to 07BC_O, the proportion of the parameter of population transmission risk (TR) of 07BC_N has risen constantly. The power-law function analyses reveal that 07BC_N has increased over years with higher degree. In 07BC_N, only 13.16% of MSM were linked to other risk groups, but these links represent 41.45%, 54.25%, and 55.07% of links among heterosexual females, heterosexual males, and male PWID respectively. This study indicates that CRF07_BC has evolved into two clusters in China, and their distributions are distinct across risk groups and geographical regions. 07BC_N shows a greater risk of transmission, and has gradually replaced 07BC_O. Furthermore, the results show that strengthening the MSM interventions could lower the rapidity of 07BC_N transmission in all risk groups.