A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients
Ze Chen, Jing Chen, Jianghua Zhou, Fang Lei, Feng Zhou, Juan‐Juan Qin, Xiao‐Jing Zhang, Lihua Zhu, Ye-Mao Liu, Haitao Wang, Mingming Chen, Yan-Ci Zhao, Jing Xie, Lijun Shen, Xiaohui Song, Xingyuan Zhang, Chengzhang Yang, Weifang Liu, Xiao Zhang, Deliang Guo, Youqin Yan, Mingyu Liu, Weiming Mao, Li Liu, Ping Ye, Bing Xiao, Pengcheng Luo, Zixiong Zhang, Zhigang Lu, Junhai Wang, Haofeng Lu, Xigang Xia, Daihong Wang, Xiaofeng Liao, Gang Peng, Liang Liang, Jun Yang, Guohua Chen, Elena Azzolini, Alessio Aghemo, Michele Ciccarelli, Gianluigi Condorelli, Giulio Stefanini, Wei Xiang, Binghong Zhang, Xiaodong Huang, Jiahong Xia, Yufeng Yuan, Zhi‐Gang She, Jiao Guo, Yibin Wang, Peng Zhang, Hongliang Li
Abstract
BACKGROUND: To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources. METHODS: 6415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses. RESULTS: < .0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.