Epidemiological trends of early-onset gastrointestinal cancers from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2036: analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal cancers account for 39.0% of global cancer-related deaths. The rising incidence of early-onset gastrointestinal cancers poses a substantial public health challenge due to their aggressive nature and poor prognosis. METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed temporal trends (1990-2021) in age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) rates for early-onset gastrointestinal cancers among individuals aged 15-49 years. Analyses included burden by age, sex, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression estimated average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and future trends (2022-2036) were projected using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 499,800 new cases of early-onset gastrointestinal cancers globally. Colorectal and stomach cancers were most prevalent. From 1990-2021, ASIR increased only for colorectal cancer (AAPC: 0.37, 95%CI: 0.24-0.50), while declines occurred in esophageal, stomach, liver, pancreatic, and gallbladder/biliary tract cancers. Males bore a higher burden except for gallbladder/biliary tract cancer. Significant disparities existed across regions, genders, and SDI levels. Smoking and high body-mass index were leading risk factors. Projections indicate rising ASIRs for early-onset colorectal and esophageal cancers, stable liver cancer incidence, and diminishing incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates for stomach, pancreatic, and gallbladder and biliary tract cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset gastrointestinal cancers represent a substantial and evolving global burden, with notable variations by cancer type, age, sex, region, and SDI. Targeted prevention and healthcare strategies are urgently needed to address modifiable risk factors and reduce disparities.

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