DECISION SUPPORT FOR PHYSICAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS USING ROUTE-LEVEL METRICS AND SIMULATION-BASED EVALUATION
Elshan Hashimov, Ramil Akhundov, Aziz Talibov, Islam Islamov
Abstract
This article proposes a quantitative decision-support framework for improving the effectiveness of systematic physical protection systems at critical infrastructure and special-purpose facilities with heterogeneous route architectures. The study is based on the premise that physical protection should be treated not merely as the accumulation of technical means, but as a route-sensitive management problem that explicitly accounts for adversary movement options, perimeter heterogeneity, and the integrated functioning of detection, delay, and response elements. The primary effectiveness criterion is defined as the route-level probability that the facility remains in a safe state, which enables the identification of vulnerable routes that may remain hidden behind average system indicators. The proposed framework combines formal system representation, simulation-based evaluation, grouping of noncompliant routes by latent characteristics, and regression-based inference for intervention selection. The methodological core includes a structural mapping between facility elements, threats, vulnerabilities, and protection mechanisms, allowing the synthesis problem to be formulated as a logically organized decision process rather than an ad hoc set of measures. Simulation modeling is used to estimate the safe-state probability for each route on the basis of segment-level detection probability, delay time, and response timing. Routes that fail to meet the required threshold are subsequently analyzed through factor-based grouping and full factorial design, after which regression coefficients are used to infer whether effectiveness is more strongly improved through detection enhancement, delay reinforcement, or a combined intervention portfolio. The results show that under heterogeneous route conditions, differentiated portfolio selection is more rational than uniform system-wide strengthening. Group-based interventions improve not only mean performance but also the lower tail of the route distribution, thereby increasing overall compliance with the required protection threshold while supporting more transparent and operationally implementable resource allocation decisions.