Complex tsunami hazards in eastern Indonesia from seismic and non-seismic sources: Deterministic modelling based on historical and modern data
Ignatius Ryan Pranantyo, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Phil R. Cummins
Abstract
Abstract Eastern Indonesia is one of the world’s most complex regions in terms of tsunami hazards, as it accommodates numerous seismic and non-seismic tsunami sources with a history of deadly tsunamis. This study is an effort to enhance tsunami hazard knowledge in eastern Indonesia where limited data and analyses exist. We provide a brief understanding of eastern Indonesia’s tsunami hazards by modelling selected deterministic tsunami scenarios from tectonic, submarine mass failure (SMF), and volcanic sources. To our knowledge, this is the first time that tsunami hazards modelling from such diverse sources in Indonesia has been performed. Our methodology is a deterministic tsunami hazard analysis considering credible tsunami sources from historical and contemporary data, modelling them using state-of-the-art simulation tools. We modelled two Mw7.8 tsunamigenic earthquake scenarios on the Flores back-arc thrust, one rupturing the basal fault (FBT-BF) and the other rupturing the splay fault (FBT-SF), showing that the two scenarios produce maximum tsunami amplitudes of $$\sim$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math> 5.3 m and $$\sim$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math> 4.2 m, respectively, which are comparable to the deadly 1992 Flores tsunami. We modelled potential SMF-generated tsunamis in the Makassar Strait with SMF volumes of 5 $$\hbox {km}^3$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msup><mml:mtext>km</mml:mtext><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math> and 225 $$\hbox {km}^3$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msup><mml:mtext>km</mml:mtext><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:math> which yielded maximum tsunami heights of $$\sim$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math> 1.1 m and $$\sim$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math> 4.3 m along the eastern coast of Kalimantan Island and $$\sim$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math> 2.9 m and $$\sim$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mo>∼</mml:mo></mml:math> 11.1 m along the west shore of Sulawesi Island, respectively. The 1871 Ruang volcanic tsunami is studied through existing historical documents and a source model is proposed comprising a flank collapse with volume of $$0.10\ \mathrm{km}^3$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0.10</mml:mn><mml:mspace/><mml:msup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>km</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math> . Such a source model successfully reproduced the 25 m runup reported in a historical account.