Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Wenju Cai, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Kai Yang
Abstract
Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) underpins its global impact, and its future change is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the IPCC reports no systematic change in ENSO SST variability under any emission scenarios considered. However, comparison between the 20th and 21st century shows a robust increase in century-long ENSO SST variability under four IPCC plausible emission scenarios.
Topics & Concepts
El Niño Southern OscillationSea surface temperatureClimatologyEnvironmental scienceMultivariate ENSO indexClimate changeSurface air temperatureSouthern oscillationOceanographyGeologyClimate variability and modelsArctic and Antarctic ice dynamicsOceanographic and Atmospheric Processes