Predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2: a prospective cohort study
Rong-Hui Du, Li-Rong Liang, Cheng-Qing Yang, Wen Wang, Tan-Ze Cao, Ming Li, Guang-Yun Guo, Juan Du, Chun-Lan Zheng, Qi Zhu, Ming Hu, Xu-Yan Li, Peng Peng, Huan‐Zhong Shi
Abstract
The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the death of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. All clinical and laboratory parameters were collected prospectively from a cohort of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who were hospitalised to Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China) between 25 December 2019 and 7 February 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the relationship between each variable and the risk of death of COVID-19 pneumonia patients. In total, 179 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia (97 male and 82 female) were included in the present prospective study, of whom 21 died. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥65 years (OR 3.765, 95% CI 1.201‒11.803; p=0.023), pre-existing concurrent cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases (OR 2.464, 95% CI 1.279‒4.747; p=0.007), CD3 + CD8 + T-cells ≤75 cells·μL −1 (OR 3.982, 95% CI 1.761‒9.004; p<0.001) and cardiac troponin I ≥0.05 ng·mL −1 (OR 4.077, 95% CI 1.778‒9.349; p<0.001) were associated with an increase in risk of mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia. In a sex-, age- and comorbid illness-matched case–control study, CD3 + CD8 + T-cells ≤75 cells·μL −1 and cardiac troponin I ≥0.05 ng·mL −1 remained as predictors for high mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia. We identified four risk factors: age ≥65 years, pre-existing concurrent cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases, CD3 + CD8 + T-cells ≤75 cells·μL −1 and cardiac troponin I ≥0.05 ng·mL −1 . The latter two factors, especially, were predictors for mortality of COVID-19 pneumonia patients.