Predictive Assessment of the Development of Unmanned Aviation System
Sergei Serebryansky, Maksim Shkurin
Abstract
This paper shows the method of using a variational model for forecasting trends in the development of unmanned aerial systems for various purposes. The predictive assessment of development prospects is determined by solving a variational problem. Several variants of formulations of variational problems are investigated. A variant of a specific task is determined by the purpose of the aviation system under study and the goals of its development. The priority development goal is determined by when the system is supposed to be used for its intended purpose in the future. As a result, it is shown that the development of various types of aircraft as part of a promising system should be treated as the development of a complex technical system. This should consider not only all the features of the joint functioning and its constituent parts but as well as the fact that the unmanned aerial vehicle itself is the element of a complex system of a higher order. And the problem as a whole requires the professional approach of specialists with different competencies.