A nomogram based on PI-RADS v2.1 and clinical indicators for predicting clinically significant prostate cancer in the transition zone
Chaogang Wei, Peng Pan, Tong Chen, Yueyue Zhang, Guangcheng Dai, Jian Tu, Zhen Jiang, Wenlu Zhao, Junkang Shen
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study attempted to develop a nomogram for predicting clinically significant prostate cancer (cs-PCa) in the transition zone (TZ) with the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System version 2.1 (PI-RADS v2.1) score based on biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bp-MRI) and clinical indicators. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 383 patients with suspicious prostate lesions in the TZ as a training cohort and 128 patients as the validation cohort from January 2015 to March 2020. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent predictors for building a nomogram, and the performance of the nomogram was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve and decision curve. RESULTS: The PI-RADS v2.1 score and prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) were independent predictors of TZ cs-PCa. The prediction model had a significantly higher AUC (0.936) than the individual predictors (0.914 for PI-RADS v2.1 score, P=0.045, 0.842 for PSAD, P<0.001). The nomogram showed good discrimination (AUC of 0.936 in the training cohort and 0.963 in the validation cohort) and favorable calibration. When the PI-RADS v2.1 score was combined with PSAD, the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 80.7% and 93.8%, respectively, which were better than those of the PI-RADS v2.1 score (sensitivity, 74.2%; specificity, 92.5%) and PSAD (sensitivity, 66.1%; specificity, 88.2%). CONCLUSIONS: The newly constructed nomogram exhibits satisfactory predictive accuracy and consistency for TZ cs-PCa. PI-RADS v2.1 based on bp-MRI is a strong predictor in the detection of TZ cs-PCa. Adding PSAD to PI-RADS v2.1 could improve its diagnostic performance, thereby avoiding unnecessary biopsies.