Multi-Period Power System Risk Minimization Under Wildfire Disruptions
Hanbin Yang, Noah Rhodes, Haoxiang Yang, Line Roald, Lewis Ntaimo
Abstract
Natural wildfire becomes increasingly frequent as climate change evolves, posing a growing threat to power systems, while grid failures simultaneously fuel the most destructive wildfires. Preemptive de-energization of grid equipment is effective in mitigating grid-induced wildfires but may cause significant power outages during natural wildfires. This paper proposes a novel two-stage stochastic program for planning preemptive de-energization and solves it via an enhanced Lagrangian cut decomposition algorithm. We model wildfire events as stochastic disruptions with random magnitude and timing. The stochastic program maximizes the electricity delivered while proactively de-energizing components over multiple time periods to reduce wildfire risks. We use a cellular automaton process to sample grid failure and wildfire scenarios driven by realistic risk and environmental factors. We test our method on an augmented version of the RTS-GLMC test case in Southern California and compare it with four benchmark cases, including deterministic, wait-and-see, and robust optimization formulations as well as a comparison with prior wildfire risk optimization. Our method reduces wildfire damage costs and load-shedding losses, and our nominal plan is robust against uncertainty perturbation.