Is predictive coding falsifiable?
Howard Bowman, Dan Collins, A. Nayak, Damian Cruse
Abstract
Predictive-coding has justifiably become a highly influential theory in Neuroscience. However, the possibility of its unfalsifiability has been raised. We argue that if predictive-coding were unfalsifiable, it would be a problem, but there are patterns of behavioural and neuroimaging data that would stand against predictive-coding. Contra (vanilla) predictive patterns are those in which the more expected stimulus generates the largest evoked-response. However, basic formulations of predictive-coding mandate that an expected stimulus should generate little, if any, prediction error and thus little, if any, evoked-response. It has, though, been argued that contra (vanilla) predictive patterns can be obtained if precision is higher for expected stimuli. Certainly, using precision, one can increase the amplitude of an evoked-response, turning a predictive into a contra (vanilla) predictive pattern. We demonstrate that, while this is true, it does not present an absolute barrier to falsification. This is because increasing precision also reduces latency and increases the frequency of the response. These properties can be used to determine whether precision-weighting in predictive-coding justifiably explains a contra (vanilla) predictive pattern, ensuring that predictive-coding is falsifiable.