The Wind and Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method Based on Digital Twins
Yonggui Wang, Yonggui Wang, Yong Qi, Jian Li, Le Huan, Yusen Li, Bitao Xie, Yongshan Wang, Yongshan Wang
Abstract
Wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting are crucial for improving the operational efficiency of power systems and building smart power systems. However, the uncertainty and instability of factors affecting renewable power generation pose challenges to power system operations. To address this, this paper proposes a digital twin-based method for predicting wind and PV power. By utilizing digital twin technology, this approach provides a highly realistic simulation environment that enables accurate monitoring, optimal control, and decision support for power system operations. Furthermore, a digital twin platform for the AI (Artificial Intelligence) Grid is established, allowing real-time monitoring, and ensuring the safe, reliable, and stable operation of the grid. Additionally, a deep learning-based model WPNet is developed to predict wind and PV power at specific future time points. Four datasets are constructed based on weather conditions and historical wind and PV power data from the Flanders and Wallonia regions. The prediction models presented in this paper demonstrate excellent performance on these datasets, achieving mean square error (MSE) values of 0.001399, 0.001833, 0.000704, and 0.002708; mean absolute error (MAE) values of 0.025164, 0.027854, 0.018592, and 0.033501; and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.037409, 0.042808, 0.026541, and 0.052042, respectively.