Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential
Lidong Mo, Constantin M. Zohner, Peter B. Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de‐Miguel, G.J. Nabuurs, Susanne S. Renner, Johan van den Hoogen, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, Leila Mirzagholi, Haozhi Ma, Colin Averill, Oliver L. Phillips, Javier G. P. Gamarra, Iris Hordijk, Devin Routh, Meinrad Abegg, Yves C. Adou Yao, Giorgio Alberti, Angélica M. Almeyda Zambrano, Braulio Vílchez Alvarado, Esteban Álvarez‐Dávila, Patricia Álvarez-Loayza, Luciana F. Alves, Iêda Leão do Amaral, Christian Ammer, Clara Antón‐Fernández, Alejandro Araujo‐Murakami, Luzmila Arroyo, Valerio Avitabile, Gerardo A. Aymard C., Timothy R. Baker, Radomir Bałazy, Olaf Bánki, Jorcely Barroso, Meredith L. Bastian, Jean‐François Bastin, Luca Birigazzi, Philippe Birnbaum, Robert Bitariho, Pascal Boeckx, Frans Bongers, Olivier Bouriaud, Pedro H. S. Brancalion, Susanne Brandl, Francis Q. Brearley, Roel Brienen, Eben N. Broadbent, Helge Bruelheide, Filippo Bussotti, Roberto Cazzolla Gatti, Ricardo G. César, Goran Češljar, Robin L. Chazdon, Han Y. H. Chen, Chelsea Chisholm, Hyunkook Cho, Emil Cienciala, Connie J. Clark, David B. Clark, Gabriel Dalla Colletta, David A. Coomes, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, José Javier Corral‐Rivas, Philip M. Crim, Jonathan Cumming, Selvadurai Dayanandan, André Luís de Gasper, Mathieu Decuyper, Géraldine Derroire, Ben DeVries, Ilija Djordjević, Jiří Doležal, Aurélie Dourdain, Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang, Brian J. Enquist, Teresa J. Eyre, Adandé Belarmain Fandohan, Tom M. Fayle, Ted R. Feldpausch, Leandro Valle Ferreira, Leena Finér, Markus Fischer, Christine Fletcher, Lorenzo Frizzera, Damiano Gianelle, Henry B. Glick, David J. Harris, Andy Hector, Andreas Hemp, Geerten Hengeveld, Bruno Hérault, John Herbohn, Annika Hillers, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Cang Hui, Thomas Ibanez, Nobuo Imai, Andrzej M. Jagodziński
Abstract
Abstract Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.