Climate change projection using statistical downscaling model over southern coastal Iran
Sorour Esfandeh, Afshin Danehkar, Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny, Hassan Alipour, Majid Kazemzadeh, Marina Viorela Marcu, Seyed Mohammad Moein Sadeghi
Abstract
among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP4.5 (-1.94 °C) in Ch station in 2046-2070 period. The results indicated that among CMIP5 scenarios, RCP8.5 had highest changes of rrr24 (+150.2 mm) in Chabahar station in 2071-2095 period. The lowest change magnitude of rrr24 among CMIP5 scenarios was found in RCP8.5 (-25.8 mm) in Bandar Abbas station in 2046-2070 period. In conclusion, the study reveals that the coastal area of Hormozgan province will experience rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns in the future. These changes may lead to challenges such as increased water and energy consumption, heightened risks of droughts or floods, and potential damage to agriculture and infrastructure. These findings offer valuable insights for implementing local mitigation policies and strategies and adapting to emerging climate changes in Hormozgan's coastal areas. For example, utilizing water harvesting technologies, implementing watershed management practices, and adopting new irrigation systems can address challenges like water consumption, agricultural impacts, and infrastructure vulnerability. Future research should accurately assess the effect of these changes in precipitation and temperature on water resources, forest ecosystems, agriculture, and other infrastructures in the study area to implement effective management measures.