COVID-19 in Kerala: The Dynamics of Spread and Health Index Theory
Zameer Shervani
Abstract
Background: The number of novel coronavirus cases is different in various states of India. In the second wave, the state of Kerala has the highest number of cases in India. The “Health Index Theory” established first in this article has explained such a high susceptibility of Kerala’s population to the virus. Methods: The data of sero-survey and health index score have been used to explain the high surge in the cases. The dynamics of the COVID-19 virus spread in Kerala has been applied to study the high virus surge in Kerala. Results: On February 21, 2021; the caseload share of Kerala was 48% of India’s total cases. The two sero - survey results conducted in August 2020 and December 2020 - January 2021 show that the antibodies prevalence in Kerala’s population was 0.8 and 11.6%, respectively; while India’s national sero-prevalence was 6.6 and 21.0%, respectively. Conclusions: The higher infection rate in Kerala compared to the other states of India has been interpreted by the first established “Health Index Theory”. The population of Kerala is more susceptible and less immune to the virus compared to other states as the score of Kerala on the health index is the highest. However, better healthcare in Kerala kept the case fatality rate (CFR) lowest in India.