Growing small solid nodules in lung cancer screening: safety and efficacy of a 200 mm<sup>3</sup>minimum size threshold for multidisciplinary team referral
Andrew Creamer, Carolyn Horst, Jennifer Dickson, Sophie Tisi, Helen Hall, Priyam Verghese, Ruth Prendecki, Amyn Bhamani, John McCabe, Kylie Gyertson, Anne-Marie Mullin, Jonathan Teague, Laura Farrelly, Allan Hackshaw, Arjun Nair, Anand Devaraj, Sam M. Janes
Abstract
The optimal management of small but growing nodules remains unclear. The SUMMIT study nodule management algorithm uses a specific threshold volume of 200 mm 3 before referral of growing solid nodules to the multidisciplinary team for further investigation is advised, with growing nodules below this threshold kept under observation within the screening programme. Malignancy risk of growing solid nodules of size >200 mm 3 at initial 3-month interval scan was 58.3% at a per-nodule level, compared with 13.3% in growing nodules of size ≤200 mm 3 (relative risk 4.4, 95% CI 2.17 to 8.83). The positive predictive value of a combination of nodule growth (defined as percentage volume change of ≥25%), and size >200 mm 3 was 65.9% (29/44) at a cancer-per-nodule basis, or 60.5% (23/38) on a cancer-per-participant basis. False negative rate of the protocol was 1.9% (95% CI 0.33% to 9.94%). These findings support the use of a 200 mm 3 minimum volume threshold for referral as effective at reducing unnecessary multidisciplinary team referrals for small growing nodules, while maintaining early-stage lung cancer diagnosis.