Time-series analysis of daily ambient temperature and emergency department visits in five US cities with a comparison of exposure metrics derived from 1-km meteorology products
Nikita Thomas, Stefanie Ebelt, Andrew J. Newman, Noah Scovronick, Rohan R. D’Souza, Shannon Moss, Joshua L. Warren, Matthew J. Strickland, Lyndsey A. Darrow, Howard H. Chang
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ambient temperature observations from single monitoring stations (usually located at the major international airport serving a city) are routinely used to estimate heat exposures in epidemiologic studies. This method of exposure assessment does not account for potential spatial variability in ambient temperature. In environmental health research, there is increasing interest in utilizing spatially-resolved exposure estimates to minimize exposure measurement error. METHODS: We conducted time-series analyses to investigate short-term associations between daily temperature metrics and emergency department (ED) visits for well-established heat-related morbidities in five US cities that represent different climatic regions: Atlanta, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco. In addition to airport monitoring stations, we derived several exposure estimates for each city using a national meteorology data product (Daymet) available at 1 km spatial resolution. RESULTS: Across cities, we found positive associations between same-day temperature (maximum or minimum) and ED visits for heat-sensitive outcomes, including acute renal injury and fluid and electrolyte imbalance. We also found that exposure assessment methods accounting for spatial variability in temperature and at-risk population size often resulted in stronger relative risk estimates compared to the use of observations at airports. This pattern was most apparent when examining daily minimum temperature and in cities where the major airport is located further away from the urban center. CONCLUSION: Epidemiologic studies based on single monitoring stations may underestimate the effect of temperature on morbidity when the station is less representative of the exposure of the at-risk population.