Increasing extreme winds challenge offshore wind energy resilience
Yanan Zhao, Yiheng Tao, Yuntian Chen, Jinyue Yan, Zhenzhong Zeng
Abstract
Climate change is amplifying the intensity of extreme strong winds, threatening the development and resilience of offshore wind energy systems. The ability of wind turbines to endure such conditions is determined by the fifty-year return period wind speed (U50), a key parameter for turbine design. However, the long-term trends and spatial variability of U50 across global oceans remain largely unexplored. Here, we utilize hourly ERA5 wind speed data at 100 meters above sea level from 1940 to 2023 to reveals a significant global increase in oceanic U50 of 0.016 m s⁻¹ yr-1 (p < 0.01), with upward trends evident in 62.85% of coastal regions. Notably, over 40% of both commissioned and planned offshore wind farms in Asia and Europe have encountered wind speeds exceeding the design threshold of Class III turbines (37.5 m s⁻¹). More than half of these wind farms are situated in regions with increasing U50 trends, a pattern strongly associated with changes in tropical and extratropical cyclone activity under global warming. These findings underscore the critical need to adapt offshore wind energy infrastructure to withstand evolving wind extremes. Extreme wind speeds critical for wind turbine design have increased across 63% of global coasts. Over half of offshore wind farms in Asia and Europe are in areas with increasing extreme winds, urging adaptive infrastructure under climate change.