Adapting to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Michael Droste, James H. Stock
Abstract
From early in the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have stressed the importance of individuals endogenously changing their behavior to reduce their risk of infection. This paper quantifies time variation in the endogenous behavioral response of economic activity to the prevalence of the virus using an estimated behavioral SIR model with time-varying parameters. We find significant variation in both the relationship between economic activity and viral prevalence and the relationship between transmissibility and economic activity. This variation reflects adaptation to the pandemic and has implications both for specification of behavioral SIR models and for the next stage of the pandemic.
Topics & Concepts
PandemicTransmissibility (structural dynamics)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Variation (astronomy)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakAdaptation (eye)DemographyVirologyBiologyMedicineSociologyOutbreakDiseaseNeuroscienceInfectious disease (medical specialty)AstrophysicsVibrationQuantum mechanicsVibration isolationPhysicsPathologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 impact on air quality