Energy consumption prediction for households in a society with an ageing population
Yan Zou, Chen Wang, Hina Najam, Abdelmohsen A. Nassani, Gozal Djuraeva, David Oscar
Abstract
Social aging significantly impacts household energy consumption patterns and demand, particularly in megacities like Shanghai. This study addresses the gap in understanding high-frequency impacts of aging on energy use by employing advanced machine learning techniques. Using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) and Finite Mixture Models (FMM), we analyze high-frequency hourly energy consumption data from 14,000 households in Shanghai (2016–2023) to identify distinct consumption patterns and their relationship with household characteristics. The study also simulates future scenarios incorporating demographic aging and income growth. The results reveal that an aging society not only increases overall energy demand but also significantly alters hourly consumption patterns, amplifying disparities between peak and non-peak hours. These shifts, compounded by income growth, highlight the need for tailored energy policies addressing demographic transitions. This research contributes to sustainable energy planning by providing actionable insights into the intersection of aging demographics, economic development, and urban energy consumption. The findings align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting efficient and inclusive energy strategies. • Household energy consumption patterns in Shanghai are analyzed using data from 13,997 households. • Aging population trends and income growth are examined for their impact on energy demand. • The study uses Gaussian Mixture Models to identify and categorize energy usage patterns.