Drought Trend Analysis Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Cold-Climate Regions
Yaser Sabzevari, Saeid Eslamian, Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula, Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar
Abstract
This study aimed to conduct a drought trend analysis using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in two mountainous and cold-climate regions in Iran and the United States (US). The Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the trend in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in the US and Lorestan province. The results reveal a predominantly decreasing trend in drought occurrences across Lorestan, especially in southern and southwestern areas with lower elevations. In contrast, the UCRB showed a positive trend, indicating a wet period. The western parts of the UCRB were predominantly affected by droughts. Among the stations, the Khorram Abad station exhibited the most statistically significant trend at the 99% confidence level (Z > 2.57). A temporal trend analysis of droughts revealed more positive and negative abrupt changes in the UCRB than in Lorestan. This indicates a higher degree of small-scale variability in the UCRB compared to Lorestan. This study indicates that factors such as elevation, land use changes, and proximity to water sources may contribute to the observed variations in drought trends. Additionally, the findings highlight that rising temperatures have a significantly greater impact on drought severity than reductions in precipitation. This study provides a temperature-responsive method for drought assessments, supporting the development of adaptive strategies that address snowmelt variability, seasonal water availability, and shifting drought patterns in cold regions.