An Overview of the Horizons Foresight Method: Using the “Inner Game” of Foresight to Build System-Based Scenarios
Peter Padbury
Abstract
Humans have an amazing capacity to imagine the future, and most foresight tools use this capacity but don’t explicitly support it. The Horizons Foresight Method puts this power to model and visualize at the center of the foresight process. This paper introduces foresight and scanning in general terms, describes how we can support the “inner game” of foresight, outlines the steps in the Horizons Foresight Method and some of the practical issues that arise when using it. There are many tools in the futurist’s toolbox and many good foresight methods. At Policy Horizons Canada, we use a variety of methods depending on the purpose of each foresight study. The Horizons Foresight Method is a strategic foresight method that was designed to help government policy analysts and decision-makers explore how complex systems could evolve and to address the kinds of policy relevant uncertainty these shifts generate. It provides a context for policy development and vision-building. All the tools integrated in the Horizons Foresight Method were developed in the field of futures studies. Teaching this method can expose students and practitioners to some of the most useful tools in doing foresight.