Earthquake risk assessment in NE India using deep learning and geospatial analysis
Ratiranjan Jena, Biswajeet Pradhan, Sambit Prasanajit Naik, Abdullah Alamri
Abstract
Earthquake prediction is currently the most crucial task required for the probability, hazard, risk mapping, and mitigation purposes. Earthquake prediction attracts the researchers' attention from both academia and industries. Traditionally, the risk assessment approaches have used various traditional and machine learning models. However, deep learning techniques have been rarely tested for earthquake probability mapping. Therefore, this study develops a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for earthquake probability assessment in NE India. Then conducts vulnerability using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Venn's intersection theory for hazard, and integrated model for risk mapping. A prediction of classification task was performed in which the model predicts magnitudes more than 4 Mw that considers nine indicators. Prediction classification results and intensity variation were then used for probability and hazard mapping, respectively. Finally, earthquake risk map was produced by multiplying hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity. The vulnerability was prepared by using six vulnerable factors, and the coping capacity was estimated by using the number of hospitals and associated variables, including budget available for disaster management. The CNN model for a probability distribution is a robust technique that provides good accuracy. Results show that CNN is superior to the other algorithms, which completed the classification prediction task with an accuracy of 0.94, precision of 0.98, recall of 0.85, and F1 score of 0.91. These indicators were used for probability mapping, and the total area of hazard (21,412.94 km2), vulnerability (480.98 km2), and risk (34,586.10 km2) was estimated.