Prediction of land cover change based on CA-ANN model to assess its local impacts on Bagerhat, southwestern coastal Bangladesh
M. Tauhid Ur Rahman, Eshrat Jahan Esha
Abstract
This study aims to assess land use dynamics of Southwestern coastal Bangladesh using multi-temporal Landsat images. Future trend was done by CA-ANN model. Hybrid image classification method and estimation of land surface temperature along with field survey were accomplished. This study revealed that vegetation decreased significantly (11.75%) and converted mostly into wetlands whereas built-up area slightly increased (1.44%) during 2000 to 2016. According to FGD (focused Group Discussion), a major occupational transformation (from agriculture to shrimp cultivation) and internal migration towards nearby Cities are prominent here. Besides, maximum land surface temperature increased by 12.5˚C during this period as a result of land use change. Simulated land use model of 2024 revealed that 2.49% of settlement would diminish especially from southern region if any natural calamity occurs. Finally, a comprehensive land use management plan has been suggested in this study to establish a balanced and diversified use of coastal land.