Future of Russian Coal Exports in the Asia-Pacific
Stephen Fortescue
Abstract
Russia is a major coal producer and an up-and-coming supplier of coal to the Asia-Pacific region (APR).In 2017, Russia was the world's sixth-largest producer, with a 5.3 per cent share (Australia was fourth with 6.2 per cent), and third-largest exporter, with an 18 per cent share (Australia was first with 41.1 per cent). 1 In 2018, Russia exported around 120 mmt to the APR.As a rough point of comparison, in the 12 months between 2016 and 2017, Australia exported 379 mmt, overwhelmingly to the APR.Russia has serious ambitions to strengthen its position in this region.This chapter reviews progress in Russia's development of an APR-oriented coal export industry and evaluates prospects for further development.No attempt is made to describe or analyse demand issues.The focus is on the availability of coal and the capacity to get it to market.This chapter also asks whether an APR export strategy is commercially sustainable and what might be the cost to the Russian state of trying to make it so.While not systematically, Australia's coal export industry is used as a comparator.