Projected Benefits of Long-Acting Antiretroviral Therapy in Nonsuppressed People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Experiencing Adherence Barriers
Wanyi Chen, Monica Gandhi, Paul E. Sax, Anne M. Neilan, Wendy Garland, Timothy Wilkin, Rebecca Cohen, Andrea Ciaranello, Sonali Kulkarni, Joseph J. Eron, Kenneth A. Freedberg, Emily P. Hyle
Abstract
Abstract Background In a demonstration project, long-acting, injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine (CAB-RPV) achieved viral suppression in a high proportion of people with HIV (PWH) who were virologically nonsuppressed with adherence barriers. We projected the long-term impact of CAB-RPV for nonsuppressed PWH experiencing adherence barriers. Methods Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, we compared 3 strategies: (1) standard of care oral integrase inhibitor–based ART (INSTI); (2) INSTI-based ART with supportive social services (“wraparound services” [WS]) (INSTI/WS); and (3) CAB-RPV with WS (CAB-RPV/WS). Model outcomes included viral suppression (%) and engagement in care (%) at 3 years, and life expectancy (life-years [LYs]). Base case cohort characteristics included mean age of 47y (standard deviation [SD], 10y), 90% male at birth, and baseline mean CD4 count 150/µL (SD, 75/µL). Viral suppression at 3 months was 13% (INSTI), 28% (INSTI/WS), and 60% (CAB-RPV/WS). Mean loss to follow-up was 28/100 person-years (PY) (SD, 2/100 PY) without WS and 16/100 PY (SD, 1/100 PY) with WS. Results Projected viral suppression at 3 years would vary widely: 16% (INSTI), 38% (INSTI/WS), and 44% (CAB-RPV/WS). Life expectancy would be 7.4 LY (INSTI), 9.0 LY (INSTI/WS), and 9.4 LY (CAB-RPV/WS). Projected benefits over oral ART would be greater for PWH initiating CAB-RPV/WS at lower CD4 counts. Across plausible key parameter ranges, CAB-RPV/WS would improve viral suppression and life expectancy compared with oral INSTI strategies. Conclusions These model-based results support that long-acting injectable CAB-RPV with extensive support services for nonsuppressed PWH experiencing adherence barriers is likely to increase viral suppression and improve survival. A prospective study to provide further evidence is needed.