Malaria transmission risk is projected to increase in the highlands of Western and Northern Rwanda
Lian Zong, Jean Paul Ngarukiyimana, Yuanjian Yang, Steve Hung Lam Yim, Yi Zhou, Mengya Wang, Zunyi Xie, Hung Chak Ho, Meng Gao, Shilu Tong, Simone Lolli
Abstract
Malaria is one of the major health threats in Africa, and the risk of transmission is projected to be exacerbated by global warming. Rwanda experienced an 11-fold increase in malaria incidence from 2011 to 2015 despite extensive funding and implementation of control measures. Here, we focus on Rwanda as a case study and simulate monthly malaria incidence between 2010 and 2015, employing an ensemble learning method. Next, we project future malaria prevalence using shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We find that the projected increases in temperature and precipitation may shift malaria transmission risk to the highlands of western and northern Rwanda. These two regions that currently experience low malaria transmission. The seasonal effects of malaria incidence may be less apparent from January to June, and the peak season for malaria transmission in the highlands could occur one month earlier. Our findings highlight the impacts of climate change on malaria epidemics in Rwanda, which have implications for other world regions. In Rwanda, the projected temperature and precipitation increases may shift malaria transmission risk to the western and northern highlands, according to an analysis that combines the ensemble learning method, historical malaria observation data, and climate scenarios.