Pathogenic germline variants are associated with poor survival in stage III/IV melanoma patients
Lauren G. Aoude, Vanessa Bonazzi, Sandra Brosda, Kalpana Patel, Lambros T. Koufariotis, Harald Oey, Kátia Nones, Scott Wood, John V. Pearson, James M. Lonie, Melissa Arneil, Victoria Atkinson, B. Mark Smithers, Nicola Waddell, Andrew P. Barbour
Abstract
Patients with late stage resected cutaneous melanoma have poor overall survival (OS) and experience irreversible adverse events from systemic therapy. There is a clinical need to identify biomarkers to predict outcome. Performing germline/tumour whole-exome sequencing of 44 stage III/IV melanoma patients we identified pathogenic germline mutations in CDKN2A, CDK4, ATM, POLH, MRE11A, RECQL4 and XPC, affecting 7/44 patients. These mutations were associated with poor OS (p = 0.0082). We confirmed our findings in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) human skin cutaneous melanoma cohort where we identified pathogenic variants in 40/455 patients (p = 0.0203). Combining these cohorts (n = 499) further strengthened these findings showing germline carriers had worse OS (p = 0.0009). Additionally, we determined whether tumour mutation burden (TMB) or BRAF status were prognostic markers of survival. Low TMB rate (< 20 Mut/Mb; p = 0.0034) and BRAF p.V600 mutation (p = 0.0355) were associated with worse progression-free survival. Combining these biomarkers indicated that V600 mutant patients had significantly lower TMB (p = 0.0155). This was confirmed in the TCGA (n = 443, p = 0.0007). Integrative analysis showed germline mutation status conferred the highest risk (HR 5.2, 95% CI 1.72-15.7). Stage IV (HR 2.5, 0.74-8.6) and low TMB (HR 2.3, 0.57-9.4) were similar, whereas BRAF V600 status was the weakest prognostic biomarker (HR 1.5, 95% CI 0.44-5.2).