Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability
Mark England, Lorenzo M. Polvani, James A. Screen, Anthony Chun Yin Chan
Abstract
Abstract Over the past two decades, Arctic sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005. This pause is robust across observational data sets, metrics, and seasons. Large‐ensemble CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations reveal that such periods with minimal sea ice decline under increasing greenhouse gas emissions are not unusual. Analysis of ensemble members that simulate analogs of the observed pause indicates that the current slowdown could plausibly persist another five to 10 years, although the chances of a faster‐than‐average decline are increased in the near‐future. The modeling evidence suggests that internal variability has substantially offset anthropogenically forced sea ice loss in recent decades. Overall, this observed pause in Arctic sea ice decline is consistent with simulated internal variability superimposed on the long‐term trend according to the bulk of the climate modeling evidence.