Global disparities in rural and urban population exposure to compound drought and heatwave events
Tao Li, Fengjiao Song, Andrée De Cock, Philippe De Maeyer, Jiayu Bao, Ye Yuan, Sulei Naibi, Anming Bao, Long Ho, Peter Goethals
Abstract
The high occurrence of compound drought and heatwave events (CDHWs), driven by global climate change, poses a serious threat to humanity. However, their impacts on rural and urban populations remain unclear. This study analyzed CDHWs exposure in both rural and urban populations and found that the number of people chronically exposed to CDHWs has shown a clear upward trend over time. From 1901 to 2021, rural populations experienced 2.5 times the total exposure to CDHWs compared to urban populations. Over the past three decades, however, urban populations have experienced significantly higher exposure and a faster rate of increase than rural populations. Regionally, rural populations in Asia, North America, and Africa accounted for 41.06, 16.51, and 13.69% of the total global rural population exposure, respectively, while urban populations in Asia, North America, and Europe accounted for 32.31, 18.70, and 16.85% of global urban exposure, respectively. The climate-population interactive effects have been the dominant factors driving recent changes in population exposure. Our findings contribute to the risk assessment of CDHWs at both global and regional levels and provide reliable information for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.