Predicting the current and future distributions of major food crop designated geographical indications (GIs) in China under climate change
Yuyang Xian, Guilin Liu, Huizong Yao
Abstract
We first predicted the potential climate suitability of food crops with geographical indications (GIs) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and eight bioclimatic predicators under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios during 2021–2040. The results showed that highly suitable rice, wheat, and corn areas increased in the three scenarios. Specifically, the growth rate under the SSP2–4.5 scenario was higher than that under the other scenarios. The potentially suitable area of wheat GIs was the largest with the most dramatic change. In contrast, the highly suitable area of millet and soybean GIs decreased under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but increased under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP3–7.0 scenarios. The increased greenhouse gas concentrations and radiative forcing under various scenarios had different effects on the dominant factors, changing the highly suitable areas of various food crop GIs. This study provides scientific evidence for the future cultivation of food crop GIs.