Does energy poverty influence decarbonisation through electrification of the heating Sector?
Mercedes Burguillo, Pablo del Rı́o, Pedro Juez-Martel
Abstract
Cleaner end-uses of energy, including electrified heating, represent a cornerstone of a decarbonised energy transition. On the other hand, many governments have adopted measures to mitigate energy poverty and facilitate access to modern energy services, including heating. Both objectives may be interrelated, since energy poor people are less likely to use cleaner (and costlier) heating fuels. This paper analyses the impact of energy poverty on the decision to use different heating sources and identifies whether the events of COVID and the Ukraine war have affected this decision. Thus, a multinomial probit model is estimated using information from a large database of Spanish households in 2019, 2021 and 2022. The results show that being energy poor increases the probability to use carbon-intensive energy sources for heating compared to electricity, and that COVID and the war in Ukraine have affected this relationship. The increase in energy poverty over those years has negatively affected the decarbonisation goal with respect to heating choices. The influence of those events on the probability to use electric heating depends on some household and dwelling features. Therefore, mitigating energy poverty increases the welfare of energy poor people while supporting the choice of cleaner heating.