Investigating the distributional response of the rare and endangered plant Fritillaria przewalskii to climate change based on optimized MaxEnt model
Pengbin Dong, Liyang Wang, Lingjuan Wang-Li, Maolin Lei, Daiyu Qiu, Gang Bai, Fengxia Guo, Yuan Chen
Abstract
Climate change will lead to changes in the suitable ranges of certain species and accelerate the decline of global biodiversity, with alpine plants are particularly sensitive to these changes. Fritillaria przewalskii , a primary source for the traditional Chinese medicine Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus, thrives in alpine meadows at altitudes of 2,800 to 4,400 m. In recent years, the rapid decline of wild plant populations, driven by rising market demand and global warming, has led to its classification as a rare and endangered species. This study utilized 83 distribution records of F . przewalskii and 39 climatic variables to assess its distribution range across different historical periods using an optimized MaxEnt model and analyzed the environmental factors affecting its distribution. The MaxEnt model was optimized with feature combination (FC) = LQ and regularization multiplier β = 1.5, based on the values of AUC diff , OR 10 , and ΔAICc. The results indicate that elevation (Elev), solar radiation (Srad5, Srad10), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), and temperature seasonality (Bio4) are key factors influencing its distribution. Ecological niche modeling revealed that this species is currently found mainly in southern Gansu, northwestern Sichuan, eastern Qinghai, and eastern Tibet. In addition, projections from three high-resolution GCM models (BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC, and BCC-CSM2-MR) suggest that the suitable habitat for F . przewalskii will shrink by the 2050s and 2090s, with its distribution shifting toward higher elevations and latitudes. In conclusion, this study aims to predict trends in the adaptive distribution of F . przewalskii under climate change, identify threatened and priority conservation areas, and provide a scientific foundation for the conservation of its germplasm resources.