Aerosol Effects on Temperature Forecastin the COSMO-Ru Model
Aleksei Poliukhov, Д. В. Блинов
Abstract
Aerosol effects on the forecast of surface temperature, as well as temperature at the levels of 850 and 500 hPa over Europe and the European part of Russia are studied using various aerosol climatologies: Tanre, Tegen, and MACv2. The numerical experiments with the COSMO-Ru model are performed for the central months of the seasons (January, April, July, and October) in 2017. It is found that a change in the simulated surface air temperature over land can reach 1°С when using Tegen and MACv2 data as compared to Tanre. At 850 and 500 hPa levels, the changes do not exceed 0.4°С. At the same time, it is shown that a decrease in the root-mean-square error of 2-m air temperature forecast at individual stations reaches 0.5°С when using Tegen and MACv2 data and 1°С for clear-sky conditions in Moscow.