Coupling the PLUS-InVEST Model for Multi-Scenario Land Use Simulation and Carbon Storage Assessment in Northern Anhui, China

Abstract

With the acceleration of urban industrialization and urbanization processes, land use patterns have undergone significant changes. In Northern Anhui, a typical region where agriculture and industry intersect, land use modifications exert a particularly significant influence on carbon sequestration capacities. However, research into how land use transformations affect carbon storage within this region is still lacking. Exploring the relationship between land use changes and carbon storage in depth can not only provide reliable data for scientific management and policy formulation but also offer important references for achieving “dual carbon” goals. This study combines the PLUS model and the InVEST model to comprehensively evaluate and forecast land utilization and carbon sequestration shifts across six cities in Northern Anhui from 2000 to 2030. By constructing four scenarios—natural development, farmland protection, economic development, and sustainable development—the potential impacts of different land use patterns on carbon sequestration capacity were simulated. The findings suggest that between 2000 and 2020, the farmland area in Northern Anhui continuously decreased, while the construction land area significantly increased; carbon storage decreased by 8.53 million tons between 2000 and 2020, which was primarily caused by the transformation of agricultural land into areas for construction. Except for the farmland protection scenario, carbon storage decreased to varying degrees in all other scenarios, with the sustainable development scenario showing the most notable mitigation in carbon storage reduction. As Northern Anhui undergoes rapid development, the significant loss of farmland caused by industrialization and urbanization is the main reason for the decline in carbon sequestration capacity.

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