Simulating the impact of climate change on the suitable area for cotton in Xinjiang based on SDMs model
Haoran Zhang, Yongting Zhu, Zhanli Ma, Jing He, Chun Guo, Qixiang Zhou, Libing Song
Abstract
Climate change significantly affects crop growth and cultivation areas, particularly in Xinjiang, a leading cotton-producing region. To analyze the distribution and changes in suitable areas for cotton cultivation in Xinjiang, we utilized multiple species distribution models (SDMs) during three periods: 1981–2020, 2021–2060, and 2061–2100, under four different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our findings results indicate that species distribution models (SDMs) effectively simulate the distribution of optimal cotton areas in Xinjiang, with Area Under Curve values exceeding 0.95, correlation coefficients above 0.83, and deviance residuals below 0.67. Based on Pearson correlation analysis, we identified land use, altitude, and bioclimatic factors as the primary environmental drivers influencing cotton distribution. Under the SSP245 scenario during the 40 s period, the cotton-suitable areas reached a maximum value of 8.81 × 10 4 km 2 , while in other times and scenarios, the cotton-suitable areas remained stable. Xinjiang's cotton-growing zones are concentrated along both sides of the Tianshan mountain range, scattered in the Tarim Basin, the Yili River basin, and the Hami region. Amid climate change, the cotton-suitable zones in the Kashgar, Hotan, and Keriya River Basins are witnessing the most rapid expansion. At the same time, high-altitude regions of Altay and arid areas in the northern Tacheng-Emin Basin are increasingly unsuitable for cotton cultivation. These findings have significant implications for constructing the main cotton-producing areas in Xinjiang. • SDMs predict climate impacts on Xinjiang cotton cultivation, guiding mitigation of altered planting and yields. • SDMs simulate cotton suitability in Xinjiang across three periods (1981–2020, 2021–2060, 2061–2100) under four SSPs. • Eight machine learning models and key factors boost SDM accuracy for Xinjiang cotton. • Cotton suitability rises in Kashi, Hotan, Keriya basins but drops in Altay and arid Tacheng-Emin areas under climate change. • This study offers scientific guidance to optimize cotton cultivation and enhance climate resilience in Xinjiang.