External Validation of International Risk-Prediction Models of IgA Nephropathy in an Asian-Caucasian Cohort
Yuemiao Zhang, Ling Guo, Zi Wang, Jinwei Wang, Lee Er, Sean J. Barbour, Hernán Trimarchi, Jicheng Lv, Hong Zhang
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Two prediction models for IgA nephropathy (IgAN) using clinical variables and the Oxford MEST scores were developed and validated in 2 multiethnic cohorts. Additional external validation is required. METHODS: ) for model fit, and calibration plots for model calibration. Baseline survival function was also evaluated. RESULTS: was higher than reported. Survival curves in the subgroups (<16th, ∼16th to <50th, ∼50th to <84th, and ≥84th percentiles of linear predictor) were well separated. Most of the predictor variables, including hazard ratio, predicted 5-year risk, and eGFR decline slope, were worse with risk increasing. The baseline survival function was comparable in our cohort and the reported cohorts. The calibration was acceptable for the full model without race. However, the risk probability over 3 years was overestimated in the full model with race included. CONCLUSION: The prediction models showed good performance on personalized risk assessment, which may be used as drug-specific, precision-medicine approaches to treatment decisionmaking.