Impact of meteorological parameters and population density on variants of SARS-CoV-2 and outcome of COVID-19 pandemic in Japan
Nadim Sharif, Shamsun Nahar Ahmed, Rubayet Rayhan Opu, Muktasid Ud Daullah, Shahriar Khan, Ali Azam Talukder, Shoko Okitsu, Hiroshi Ushijima, Ming Zhang, Shuvra Kanti Dey
Abstract
Although vaccines have become available, emergence and rapid transmission of new variants have added new paradigm in the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Weather, population and host immunity have been detected as the regulatory elements of COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the effects of weather, population and host factors on the outcome of COVID-19 and mutation frequency in Japan. Data were collected during January 2020 to February 2021. About 92% isolates were form GR clades. Variants 501Y.V1 (53%) and 452R.V1 (24%) were most prevalent in Japan. The strongest correlation was detected between fatalities and population density (rs = 0.81) followed by total population (rs = 0.72). Relative humidity had the highest correlation (rs = -0.71) with the case fatality rate. Cluster mutations namely N501Y (45%), E484K (30%), N439K (16%), K417N (6%) and T478I (3%) at spike protein have increased during January to February 2021. Above 90% fatality was detected in patients aged >60 years. The ratio of male to female patients of COVID-19 was 1.35:1. This study will help to understand the seasonality of COVID-19 and impact of weather on the outcome which will add knowledge to reduce the health burden of COVID-19 by the international organisations and policy makers.