The MAGGIC risk score in the prediction of death or hospitalization in patients with heart failure: Comparison with natriuretic peptides
Felipe Mafort Rohen, Diane Xavier de Ávila, Carolina Martins Cabrita Lemos, Ricardo Ventura Santos, Mário Luiz Ribeiro, Humberto Villacorta
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The MAGGIC risk score has been validated to predict mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). OBJECTIVES: To assess the score ability to predict hospitalization and death and to compare with natriuretic peptides. METHODS: Ninety-three consecutive patients (mean age 62±10 years) with chronic HF and left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) <50% were studied. The MAGGIC score was applied at baseline and the patients were followed for 219±86 days. MAGGIC score was compared with NT-proBNP in the prediction of events. The primary end point was the time to the first event, which was defined as cardiovascular death or hospitalization for HF. RESULTS: There were 23 (24.7%) events (3 deaths and 20 hospitalizations). The median score in patients with and without events was, respectively, 20 [interquartile range 14.2-22] vs. 15.5 [11/21], p=0.16. A ROC curve was performed and a cutoff point of 12 points showed a sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 37% with an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.48-0.69) which was lower than that of NT-proBNP (AUC 0.67; 95% CI 0.56-0.76). The mean event-free survival time for patients above and below this cutpoint was 248.8±13 vs. 290±13.7 days (log rank test with p=0.044). Using the COX proportional hazard model, age (p=0.004), NT-proBNP >1000 pg/mL (p=0.014) and the MAGGIC score (p=0.025) were independently associated with the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: The MAGGIC risk score was an independent predictor of events, including heart failure hospitalization. The addition of biomarkers improved the accuracy of the score.