Floods and rivers: a circular causality perspective
Giulia Sofia, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos
Abstract
An improved understanding of changes in flood hazard and the underlying driving mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptation strategies. While recent increases in flooding across the world have been partly attributed to a range of atmospheric or landscape drivers, one often-forgotten driver of changes in flood properties is the variability of river conveyance capacity. This paper proposes a new framework for connecting flood changes to longitudinal variability in river conveyance, precipitation climatology, flows and sediment connectivity. We present a first step, based on a regional analysis, towards a longer-term research effort that is required to decipher the circular causality between floods and rivers. The results show how this system of interacting units in the atmospheric, hydrologic and geomorphological realm function as a nonlinear filter that fundamentally alters the frequency of flood events. To revise and refine our estimation of future flood risk, this work highlights that multidriver attribution studies are needed, that include boundary conditions such as underlying climate, water and sediment connectivity, and explicit estimations of river conveyance properties.