Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19
Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, Tao Zha
Abstract
A simple model of COVID-19 that incorporates feedback from disease prevalence to disease transmission through an endogenous response of human behavior does a remarkable job fitting the main features of the data on the growth rates of daily deaths observed across a large number of countries and states in the United States in 2020. This finding, however, suggests a new empirical puzzle: very large wedges that shift disease transmission rates holding disease prevalence fixed are required both across regions and within a region over time for the model to match the data on deaths from COVID-19 as an equilibrium outcome exactly.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Transmission (telecommunications)DiseaseTransmission rateSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)EconometricsPandemicDisease transmission2019-20 coronavirus outbreakDemographyEconomicsMedicineComputer scienceVirologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)Internal medicineTelecommunicationsSociologyOutbreakCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsIncome, Poverty, and Inequality