Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making
Jana Sillmann, Tim Raupach, Kirsten L. Findell, Markus G. Donat, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Lisa V. Alexander, Leonard Borchert, Pablo Borges de Amorim, Carlo Buontempo, Erich Fischer, Christian L. E. Franzke, Bin Guan, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Ed Hawkins, Daniela Jacob, Roché Mahon, Douglas Maraun, Monica Ainhorn Morrison, Benjamin Poschlod, Alex C. Ruane, Shampa Shampa, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Narelle van der Wel, Zhuo Wang, Xuebin Zhang, Josipa Županić
Abstract
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.