Prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based analysis
Junxian Wu, Linbin Lu, Hong Chen, Yihong Lin, Huanlin Zhang, Enlin Chen, Weiwei Lin, Jie Li, Xi Chen
Abstract
PURPOSE: The present study aimed to identify independent clinicopathological and socio-economic prognostic factors associated with overall survival of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) patients and then establish and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with EO-CRC. METHODS: Eligible patients with EO-CRC diagnosed from 2010 to 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a testing cohort. Independent prognostic factors were obtained using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses and were used to establish a nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram were assessed using C-index values, AUC values, and calibration plots. RESULTS: In total, 5585 patients with EO-CRC were involved in the study. Based on the univariate and multivariate analyses, 15 independent prognostic factors were assembled into the nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year OS. The nomogram showed favorable discriminatory ability as indicated by the C-index (0.840, 95% CI 0.827-0.850), and the 3- and 5-year AUC values (0.868 and 0.84869 respectively). Calibration plots indicated optimal agreement between the nomogram-predicted survival and the actual observed survival. The results remained reproducible in the testing cohort. The C-index of the nomogram was higher than that of the TNM staging system (0.840 vs 0.804, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A novel prognostic nomogram for EO-CRC patients based on independent clinicopathological and socio-economic factors was developed, which was superior to the TNM staging system. The nomogram could facilitate postoperative individual prognosis prediction and clinical decision-making.