Flood-Risk Analytics for Climate-Resilient Agriculture Using Remote Sensing in the Northern High Plains
Parisa Sarzaeim, Wenqi Ou, Luciano Alves de Oliveira, Francisco Muñoz‐Arriola
Abstract
Agriculture has historically been affected by hydrometeorological events. Floods and droughts evidence the vulnerability of farmers and the food production system. We aim to conceptualize a crop risk framework for floods occurring before the onset of the growing season and affecting harvest. We use the NDVI from Sentinel-2 imagery to represent the indirect effects of floods on corn planting. We analyze corn’s spatiotemporal variability and associate its phenological development using NDVI to characterize its attributions to floods before the growing season, and develop a framework for hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to flooding. Floods occurred during the crop’s pregrowing season evidence a three-week delay in the peak of NDVI during the vegetative and silking phenological stages in 2019, compared to an average year. Crop yields were correlated with the NDVI in 2018 and 2019. Risk estimates were higher in counties where rivers and poor drained soils are present (1%–11%).