Multiphase computed tomography radiomics of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms to predict malignancy

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are non-invasive pancreatic precursor lesions that can potentially develop into invasive pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Currently, the International Consensus Guidelines (ICG) for IPMNs provides the basis for evaluating suspected IPMNs on computed tomography (CT) imaging. Despite using the ICG, it remains challenging to accurately predict whether IPMNs harbor high grade or invasive disease which would warrant surgical resection. A supplementary quantitative radiological tool, radiomics, may improve diagnostic accuracy of radiological evaluation of IPMNs. We hypothesized that using CT whole lesion radiomics features in conjunction with the ICG could improve the diagnostic accuracy of predicting IPMN histology. AIM: To evaluate whole lesion CT radiomic analysis of IPMNs for predicting malignant histology compared to International Consensus Guidelines. METHODS: (continuous) variables. RESULTS: < 0.05). Multivariate analysis including only ICG criteria yielded two significant variables: thickened and enhancing cyst wall and enhancing mural nodule < 5 mm with an AUC (95%CI) of 0.817 (0.709-0.926). Multivariable post contrast radiomics achieved an AUC (95%CI) of 0.87 (0.767-0.974) for a model including arterial phase radiomics features and 0.834 (0.716-0.953) for a model including venous phase radiomics features. Combined multivariable model including conventional variables and arterial phase radiomics features achieved an AUC (95%CI) of 0.93 (0.85-1.0) with a 5-fold cross validation AUC of 0.90. CONCLUSION: Multi-phase CT radiomics evaluation could play a role in improving predictive capability in diagnosing malignancy in IPMNs. Future larger studies may help determine the clinical significance of our findings.

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