Long-term transformation in China’s steel sector for carbon capture and storage technology deployment
Yihan Wang, Zongguo Wen, Mao Xu, Christian Doh Dinga
Abstract
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has substantial potential for deep decarbonization of the steel sector. However, long-term transformations within this sector lead to significant changes in steel units, posing challenges for CCS deployment. Here, we integrate sector-level transformation pathways by 2060 to simulate the distribution of China’s steel units and generate optimal CCS deployment schemes using a source-sink matching model. Results indicate that CCS accounts for 31.4-40.7% of carbon mitigation effects in China’s steel sector by 2060. Following the sector-level pathways, over 650 steel units will either be eliminated or retrofitted. The optimal CCS deployment schemes can achieve carbon mitigation effects of 472.4-609.6 Mt at levelized costs of 187.4-193.5 Chinese Yuan t−1 CO2, demonstrating cost-effectiveness under future carbon price levels. Nevertheless, the proposed schemes will lead to energy and water consumption of 951.0-1427.3 PJ and 1.60-1.69 million m3, respectively, posing a risk of resource scarcity. These insights inform the development of CCS implementation strategies in China’s steel sector and beyond, promoting deep decarbonization throughout society. The study finds that by 2060, CCS mitigates 31.4-40.7% of carbon emissions in China’s steel sector. Optimal CCS deployment achieves 472.4-609.6 Mt mitigation at costs of over 180 CNY per ton. However, related energy and water use risks resource scarcity.