Contrail minimization through altitude diversions: A feasibility study leveraging global data
Esther Roosenbrand, Junzi Sun, Jacco Hoekstra
Abstract
As global flight volume rises, the aviation industry is facing increasing climate challenges. One major factor is the impact of contrails, which trap outgoing terrestrial radiation and counteract emission reduction benefits from emission-optimized flight routes. Our study quantifies contrail-forming flights globally and assesses altitude adjustments necessary to avoid these regions. Using the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive and global flight data from 2021-2022, we highlight several contrail-prone regions with high air traffic volumes and high potential for contrail-formation. We propose an operational strategy in altitude diversion, which can halve the amount of persistent contrails. Further, we analyse the additional carbon emissions caused by the altitude diversions and safety risks in terms of potential new conflicts. Our findings provide actionable strategies for policymakers to balance climate mitigation and operational challenges in aviation.