Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease screening in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A cost-effectiveness and price threshold analysis
Bryan Peide Choo, George Boon‐Bee Goh, Sing Yi Chia, Hong Choon Oh, Ngiap Chuan Tan, Jessica Yi Lyn Tan, Tiing Leong Ang, Yong Mong Bee, Yu Jun Wong
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The cost-effectiveness of screening asymptomatic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients remains debatable, with current studies assuming lifelong benefits of NAFLD screening while neglecting cardiovascular outcomes. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of NAFLD screening among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, and to establish a price threshold for NAFLD treatment, when it becomes available. METHOD: A Markov model was constructed comparing 4 screening strategies (versus no screening) to identify NAFLD with advanced fibrosis among T2DM patients: fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), FIB-4 and VCTE (simultaneous), and FIB-4 and VCTE (sequential). Sensitivity analyses and price threshold analyses were performed to assess parameter uncertainties in the results. RESULTS: VCTE was the most cost-effective NAFLD screening strategy (USD24,727/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]), followed by FIB-4 (USD36,800/QALY), when compared to no screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a higher degree of certainty for VCTE as a cost-effective strategy compared to FIB-4 (90.7% versus 73.2%). The duration of expected screening benefit is the most influential variable based on incremental cost-effectiveness ratio tornado analysis. The minimum duration of screening benefit for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective was at least 2.6 years. The annual cost of NAFLD treatment should be less than USD751 for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Both VCTE and FIB-4 are cost-effective NAFLD screening strategies among T2DM patients in Singapore. However, given the lack of access to VCTE at primacy care and potential budget constraints, FIB-4 can also be considered for NAFLD screening among T2DM patients in Singapore.