Impact of population movement on the spread of 2019-nCoV in China
Chi Zhang, Cai Chen, Wei Shen, Feng Tang, Hao Lei, Yu Xie, Zicheng Cao, Kang Tang, Junbo Bai, Lehan Xiao, Yutian Xu, Yanxin Song, Jiwei Chen, Zhihui Guo, Yichen Guo, Xiao Wang, Modi Xu, Huachun Zou, Yuelong Shu, Xiangjun Du
Abstract
Since Dec 2019, China has experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. A travel ban was implemented for Wuhan, Hubei on Jan 23 to slow down the outbreak. We found a significant positive correlation between population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R2 = 0.85, P < 0.001), especially cities in Hubei (R2 = 0.88, P < 0.001). Removing the travel restriction would have increased 118% (91%–172%) of the overall cases for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days or a week earlier would have reduced 47% (26%–58%) and 83% (78%–89%) of the early cases. We would expect a 61% (48%–92%) increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents, and 11% (8%–16%) increase if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk.