Forecasting the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in China: a Boltzmann function-based modeling study
Yuanyuan Gao, Zuqin Zhang, Wei Yao, Qi Ying, Long Cheng, Xinmiao Fu
Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak is ongoing in China. Here, Boltzmann function-based analyses reveal the potential total numbers of COVID-19 deaths: 3,260 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3187-3394) in China; 110 (95% CI, 109-112) in Hubei Province; 3,174 (95% CI, 3095-3270) outside Hubei; 2,550 (95% CI, 2494-2621) in Wuhan City; and 617 (95% CI, 607-632) outside Wuhan.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)ChinaCumulative distribution functionPandemicFunction (biology)MedicineStatisticsMathematicsVirologyInternal medicineGeographyProbability density functionBiologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)OutbreakEvolutionary biologyDiseaseArchaeologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 impact on air quality